• Issue

    Earth's Future: Volume 7, Issue 12

    1233-1480
    December 2019

Issue Information

Open Access

Issue Information

  • Pages: 1233-1234
  • First Published: 22 January 2020

Feature Articles

Open Access

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea-Level Rise

  • Pages: 1235-1269
  • First Published: 16 October 2019
Key Points

  • Understanding coastal evolution requires accounting for interactions of sea-level change, geomorphology, socioeconomics, and human responses
  • Deep uncertainty in sea-level rise projections and impacts exists on timescales relevant to infrastructure and planning decisions
  • Adaptation under deep uncertainty requires co-production, iterative risk management, and awareness of political economy

Research Articles

Open Access

Contrasting Hydroclimatic Model-Data Agreements Over the Nordic-Arctic Region

  • Pages: 1270-1282
  • First Published: 21 November 2019
Key Points

  • Climate model performance is evaluated relative to observations for 64 Nordic and Arctic drainage basins
  • Model-observation agreement is similar for runoff and temperature, and distinctly higher than that for precipitation or evapotranspiration
  • Model projections for the region may be similarly reliable for large-scale average conditions of runoff as of temperature

Open Access

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

  • Pages: 1283-1295
  • First Published: 26 October 2019
Key Points

  • The global mean temperature is, in principle, reversible after an overshoot, but carbon sinks show path dependence
  • Carbon budgets in overshoot scenarios are independent of CO2 emission pathway for low levels of overshoot (up to 300 Pg C)
  • No corrections are needed for ambitious mitigation scenarios with low levels of overshoot presented in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C

Open Access

Sea Ice Targeted Geoengineering Can Delay Arctic Sea Ice Decline but not Global Warming

  • Pages: 1296-1306
  • First Published: 05 December 2019
Key Points

  • Sea ice targeted geoengineering allows to keep the late-summer sea ice cover at the current extent for the next ∼60 years
  • The Arctic summer cooling is not conveyed to lower latitudes and comes at the price of Arctic winter warming
  • Our results cast doubt on the potential of Arctic Ice Management to mitigate climate change

Open Access

Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C.

  • Pages: 1307-1322
  • First Published: 09 November 2019
Key Points

  • Risks of socioeconomic development, ecosystem and food production would increase between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming, economic losses might double
  • Increases in annual socioeconomic losses of 2.0 °C warming would be more significant than those of 1.5 °C
  • Eastern China exhibits high integrate risks of climate change, which present westward and northward trends from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C warming

Open Access

How Daily Temperature and Precipitation Distributions Evolve With Global Surface Temperature.

  • Pages: 1323-1336
  • First Published: 26 October 2019
Key Points

  • Daily temperature and precipitation distributions from CESM1 Large Ensemble are shown to be functions of region, season, and surface temperature
  • Large differences are found in regional distributions, where they are particularly sensitive to surface temperature anomaly
  • We identify regions where global warming may rapidly shift seasonal climate away from preindustrial conditions

Open Access

Participatory Modeling Updates Expectations forIndividuals and Groups, Catalyzing BehaviorChange and Collective Action inWater-Energy-Food NexusGovernance

  • Pages: 1337-1352
  • First Published: 06 November 2019
Key Points

  • Participatory modeling could be fundamental to understanding complex social-ecological systems with high uncertainty and conflicting interests
  • Engagement in participatory modeling can change expectations and thereby increase individual and collective agency in facing sustainability challenges
  • Our method provides a framework to evaluate and compare participatory modeling approaches for their behavior change potential

Open Access

Sensitivity of Global Pasturelands to Climate Variation

  • Pages: 1353-1366
  • First Published: 14 November 2019
Key Points

  • In Australia, pasturelands have both low resistance and low resilience relative to other regions across the world
  • Southern South America has the lowest resilience globally, which is indicative of slow vegetation recovery after a disturbance
  • A total of 14.5% of global pasturelands experienced greening or browning trends, with the majority of these locations showing greening

Open Access

Discovering Dependencies, Trade-Offs, and Robustness in Joint Dam Design and Operation: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Kariba Dam

  • Pages: 1367-1390
  • First Published: 02 December 2019
Key Points

  • Dependencies across dam design and operations strongly influence attainable robustness
  • Ex-post analysis of the Kariba dam directly maps how operations can reshape capital investments
  • The contributed framework aids in reducing the capital costs required to improve robustness to changing drivers

Open Access

Future Changes in East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Precipitation Under 1.5 to 5 °C of Warming

  • Pages: 1391-1406
  • First Published: 02 December 2019
Key Points

  • East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation are projected to  increase nonlinearly with warming
  • The EASM circulation is projected to enhance mainly driven by increased thermal contrasts in the lower troposphere rather than in upper layer
  • Both dynamic and thermodynamic components contribute to precipitation increase but dynamic change is more important at high warming level

Open Access

How Green Transition of Energy System Impacts China's Mercury Emissions

  • Pages: 1407-1416
  • First Published: 11 December 2019
Key Points

  • We investigate how green transition of energy system impacts China's mercury emissions by using structural decomposition/path analysis
  • Green transition as emission factors and energy mix change have substantial benefits, while energy efficiency change has a weaker effect
  • Green transition makes production layers less mercury intensive, and mercury emissions are more concentrated in the production layers

Open Access

Quantifying the Terrestrial Carbon Feedback to Anthropogenic Carbon Emission

  • Pages: 1417-1433
  • First Published: 14 December 2019
Key Points

  • New relationship converts carbon-concentration and carbon-climate response into land carbon feedback, comparable to climate feedback
  • Emergent link identified between strengths of land carbon feedback and physical climate feedback in response to anthropogenic forcing
  • Around half the uncertainty in land carbon feedback originates from uncertainty in physical climate feedback

Open Access

Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow-Covered Regions

  • Pages: 1434-1450
  • First Published: 21 November 2019
Key Points

  • Winter weather whiplash is defined as a rapid change in weather with temperature fluctuations above and below freezing
  • Although rare, these events may have outsized impacts on coupled human and natural systems
  • Identifying the occurrences of these events is critical in light of rapidly changing winter conditions

Open Access

Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering

  • Pages: 1451-1463
  • First Published: 14 December 2019
Key Points

  • We examine the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on both the surface ice sheet water runoff and the dynamic loss of ice
  • Aerosol injection of ¼ 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption per year slows mass loss by 15–20% mainly due to reduced surface melting
  • Increased Arctic sea ice and reduced humidity cool the ablation zone sufficiently to overcome a slightly increased AMOC relative to RCP4.5

Open Access

Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

  • Pages: 1464-1480
  • First Published: 30 September 2019
Key Points

  • Without agronomic adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten growing periods and to reduce yields and production
  • Adaptation via cultivars that maintain current growing periods under warming can compensate global production losses up to 2 K
  • Irrigation would act as intensification rather than true adaptation, as it hardly affects the sensitivity of crop yields to warming