The ongoing California Drought of 2012-2015: A testbed for understanding regional climate extremes in a warming world

1 January 2015
19 March 2018

Figure 2 from Swain (2015). Depiction of mid-tropospheric high pressure known as "The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge." See 10.1002/2015GL066628 for detailed information.

The state of California has experienced the worst meteorological drought in its historical record during 2012-2015. The adverse effects of this multi-year event have been far from uniformly distributed across the region, ranging from remarkably mild in most of California's densely-populated coastal cities to very severe in more rural, agricultural, and wildfire-prone regions. This duality of impacts has created a tale of two very different California droughts—highlighting enhanced susceptibility to climate stresses at the environmental and socioeconomic margins of California. From a geophysical perspective, the persistence of related atmospheric anomalies have raised a number of questions regarding the drought's origins—including the role of anthropogenic climate change. Recent investigations underscore the importance of understanding the underlying physical causes of extremes in the climate system, and the present California drought represents an excellent case study for such endeavors. Meanwhile, a powerful El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean offers the simultaneous prospect of partial drought relief but also an increased risk of flooding during the 2015-2016 winter—a situation illustrative of the complex hydroclimatic risks California and other regions are likely to face in a warming world.

This collection brings together papers published in Geophysical Research Letters on the 2012-2015 California drought.

Commentary

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A tale of two California droughts: Lessons amidst record warmth and dryness in a region of complex physical and human geography

Key Points

  • California has experienced the worst drought in its historical record during 2012–2015
  • Effects of this event have been relatively mild in some sectors but very severe others
  • El Niño presents the simultaneous prospect of drought relief but also an increased risk of flooding

Research Letters

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How much have California winters warmed over the last century?

Key Points

  • Inferred century-long winter temperature trends among five data sets are larger for daily temperature minima than for maxima
  • Temperature trends vary substantially in magnitude and spatial patterns among data sets and are particularly noticeable at the local scale
  • Modeled California snowpack trends based on the five gridded temperature data sets vary by as much as 50% (−5.0 to −7.6 km3/century)

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Intensification of hydrological drought in California by human water management

Key Points

  • Human activities have increased the occurrence and intensity of hydrological drought in California, especially in the Central Valley
  • There is more than 50% chance that human activities have doubled the likelihood of the severe 2014 drought event in California
  • This study underscores the need to take human water management into account for hydrological drought analysis

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Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States

Key Points

  • In the 2012-2015 west coast drought, unusually high temperatures played a prominent role in reducing snow accumulation and causing drought
  • In much of the westernmost U.S., April snowpack was at its lowest ever in 2015
  • Crowd-sourced climate modeling shows that greenhouse gases and SST patterns did more to cause drought in the Northwest than in California

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Characterizing the extreme 2015 snowpack deficit in the Sierra Nevada (USA) and the implications for drought recovery

Key Points

  • The 2015 Sierra Nevada range-wide snow volume was characterized by a return period of over 600 years with a strong elevational gradient
  • The accumulated snowpack drought deficit volume ending in 2015 was the largest over the 65 year record analyzed
  • Despite historically strong 2016 El Nino conditions, it is highly likely that recovery to predrought conditions will take about 4 years

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Role of ocean evaporation in California droughts and floods

Key Points

  • Atmospheric circulation off U.S. West Coast controls surface wind speed and ocean evaporation
  • Ocean evaporation has little direct influence on California precipitation because of its weak variability
  • Ocean evaporation has stronger influence on California precipitation in wet years than in dry years

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Historic drought puts the brakes on earthflows in Northern California

Key Points

  • Earthflow velocities reached a historic low in the extreme 2012–2015 drought
  • Earthflow deceleration initiated around 2000 with the onset of drought
  • The sensitivity of earthflow velocity to climate depends on earthflow thickness

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Five centuries of U.S. West Coast drought: Occurrence, spatial distribution, and associated atmospheric circulation patterns

Key Points

  • Ridging has been a recurrent feature of West Coast-wide drought, 1500-2013 C.E.
  • More common north-south dipole drought exhibits long-term variability around 40 degrees north
  • La Niña linked to south-dry dipole, but blocking may be larger influence on north-dry pattern

Open Access

Running dry: The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state

Key Points

  • Changes in weather types correlate to increasing anticyclonic conditions in the U.S. Southwest
  • The U.S. Southwest's climate might already commenced transition to a drier climate state
  • Natural climate variability is perturbing a drier climate base state leading to higher drought risk

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Placing the 2012–2015 California-Nevada drought into a paleoclimatic context: Insights from Walker Lake, California-Nevada, USA

Key Points

  • Model-proxy comparisons in terminal lake basins contextualize past and present hydroclimates
  • Climate conditions require decadal persistence to elicit complete lake-level oscillations
  • The current CA-NV drought exceeds past droughts in mean severity but not duration

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Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014

Key Points

  • Warming since 1901 caused a significant trend toward drought in California
  • Recent drought was naturally driven and modestly intensified by warming
  • Warming has rapidly amplified the probability of severe drought

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Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value

Key Points

  • The 1 year 2014 California drought was a multicentury-scale event
  • The cumulative 2012–2014 California drought was a multimillennial-scale event
  • The relative severity of the cumulative 2012–2015 drought is unprecedented

Open Access

Significant modulation of variability and projected change in California winter precipitation by extratropical cyclone activity

Key Points

  • California winter precipitation highly dependent on Pacific cyclone activity
  • Recent California drought coincident with winters of low cyclone activity
  • Spread in CMIP5 precipitation projections well explained by cyclone differences

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Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California

Key Points

  • Temperature exacerbated the 2014 drought severity
  • Greater than 86% chance of the drought being less severe in alternative temperature scenario
  • Low-temperature forecast skill in California for winter and spring seasons

Open Access

Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific

Key Points

  • Anomalous atmospheric forcing in the NE Pacific in winter 2013–2014
  • Weak seasonal cooling due to reduced heat fluxes and anomalous advection
  • SST anomalies have impacts on the ecosystem and air temperatures

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Pacific sea surface temperature and the winter of 2014

Key Points

  • SST anomalies in the Pacific were a primary cause of the severe winter of 2014
  • Warmth in the tropical west Pacific led to cold in central North America
  • Specified SST model experiments replicate the observed teleconnections

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Is climate change implicated in the 2013–2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective

Key Points

  • 2013–2014 was a dry year, but far less so than 1976–1977
  • The 2 year dry period 2012–2014 likewise was anomalous but far less so than 1975–1977
  • The variability in precipitation is the main cause of the drought

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Compounding effects of warm sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice on the extreme circulation over the extratropical North Pacific and North America during the 2013–2014 boreal winter

Key Points

  • Observed anomaly were the manifestation of a known teleconnection
  • Perturbations were forced by the Pacific SST and Arctic sea ice
  • Natural variability and anthropogenic warming both contributed to the event

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How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

Key Points

  • Tree rings reveal California drought severity is unusual in 1200 years
  • 2012–2014 precipitation deficits severe but not exceptional in paleocontext
  • Record high temperatures exacerbate moisture deficit for extraordinary drought

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The worst North American drought year of the last millennium: 1934

Key Points

  • The 1934 drought was the most widespread and severe event of the last millennium
  • Despite a strong La Niña, SST forcing played only a small role
  • Atmospheric variability caused winter drying; dust intensified drying in spring

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Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought

Key Points

  • Univariate return period analysis underestimates risk of concurrent extremes
  • A concurrent extreme viewpoint is necessary in a warming climate
  • A framework is discussed for assessing the risk of concurrent extremes

Open Access

Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013–2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint

Key Points

  • The drought-inducing ridge is recurrent
  • The ridge is linked to an ENSO precursor
  • The link of the ridge with ENSO precursor has grown

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Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901–2012): The influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Key Points

  • Uncertainties in the impact of SSTs on U.S. drought are quantified
  • The U.S. is more vulnerable to drought during certain phases of SSTs
  • Nonstationarity in Pacific teleconnections is found at the decadal scale