Seismicity in Western Japan and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasting

Kiyoo Mogi

Kiyoo Mogi

Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo University, Tokyo 113

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First published: 01 January 1981
Citations: 27
Book Series:Maurice Ewing Series


Western Japan, along the Nankai trough is a typical subduction zone where great shallow earthquakes have frequently occurred. In this region, records of seismic activity and ground movement have been accumulated for a long period of time. Because of the excellent quality of the data, this region is one of the most suitable sites for studying the long-term spatio-temporal variation of seismicity in the crust. In this paper, the time of occurrence of great shallow earthquakes and the space-time distribution of seismicity between successive great earthquakes are discussed. On the basis of the seismicity and the crustal movement data, it is concluded that a great earthquake occurs when the stress in this region reaches to the ultimate stress level. These results are useful for long-term forecasting of great shallow earthquakes along subduction zones.