Using Multiple Large Ensembles to Elucidate the Discrepancy Between the 1979–2019 Modeled and Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends

Abstract

In spite of the unabated emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, sea ice around Antarctica has increased over most of the satellite era. Such an increase is not captured by climate models, which simulate a melting over the same period. Over the last few years, moreover, the observed sea ice trends have drastically changed, and this might act to cancel the models-observations discrepancy. Here we show that in spite of the very recent Antarctic sea ice trend changes, such discrepancy still exists. Analyzing multiple large ensembles of model simulations, we elucidate the origin of the models-observations discrepancy. We show that internal variability cannot account for the discrepancy, which therefore is likely to stem from biases in the models' forced response to the external forcing. These biases, we show, reside in thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling, as models fail to simulate the trends in surface heat fluxes from reanalyses over the period 1979–2019.