Drought Reconstruction Over the Past Two Centuries in Southern Myanmar Using Teak Tree‐Rings: Linkages to the Pacific and Indian Oceans

Abstract

To develop a high‐resolution paleoclimate proxy record facilitating adaptation measures on drought impacts, we constructed a regional composite tree‐ring chronology of teak (Tectona grandis ) by combining three local site chronologies from southern Myanmar. Our regional tree‐ring record is strongly correlated with the November–April self‐calibrated Palmer drought severity index and enabled us to reconstruct drought variability for the period 1802–2016. The reconstruction explained 46.5% of the actual self‐calibrated Palmer drought severity index variance. Over the past two centuries, we detected one extreme (1812) and six severe drought years (1810, 1811, 1816, 1852, 1887, and 1980). Dry periods coincided with six major famines that occurred in India. Spatial correlation analyses revealed that drought occurrence is linked to broader‐scale atmospheric circulations of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, especially during the positive phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Our reconstruction provides a useful historical perspective for assessing adaptation measures intent on mitigating future drought impacts in Myanmar.

Plain Language Summary

We developed a 226‐year‐long ring‐width regional chronology of teak by combining three site chronologies from southern Myanmar. Teak growth is mainly controlled by moisture availability during the dry season, making teak a suitable species for assessing drought variation in southern Myanmar. We reconstructed a 215‐year drought history and find prolonged droughts occurred in 1808–1823, 1837–1843, 1863–1876, 1883–1891, 1895–1901, 1908–1912, 1922–1930, 1941–1945, 1952–1963, 1976–1994, and 2010–2015. We also found a strong association between drought variability in southern Myanmar and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The results are useful to devise necessary policies and strategies for coping with the adverse impacts of drought and protecting the livelihoods of regional populations.