Volume 47, Issue 3
Research Letter

The Potential Impact of Nuclear Conflict on Ocean Acidification

Nicole S. Lovenduski

Corresponding Author

E-mail address: nicole.lovenduski@colorado.edu

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

Correspondence to: N. S. Lovenduski,

E-mail address: nicole.lovenduski@colorado.edu

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Cheryl S. Harrison

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, USA

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Holly Olivarez

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

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Charles G. Bardeen

Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

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Owen B. Toon

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

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Joshua Coupe

Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA

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Alan Robock

Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA

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Tyler Rohr

Water Power Technologies Office, Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA

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Samantha Stevenson

Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

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First published: 21 January 2020

Abstract

We demonstrate that the global cooling resulting from a range of nuclear conflict scenarios would temporarily increase the pH in the surface ocean by up to 0.06 units over a 5‐year period, briefly alleviating the decline in pH associated with ocean acidification. Conversely, the global cooling dissolves atmospheric carbon into the upper ocean, driving a 0.1 to 0.3 unit decrease in the aragonite saturation state ( urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60147:grl60147-math-0001) that persists for urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60147:grl60147-math-000210 years. The peak anomaly in pH occurs 2 years post conflict, while the urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60147:grl60147-math-0003 anomaly peaks 4‐ to 5‐years post conflict. The decrease in urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60147:grl60147-math-0004 would exacerbate a primary threat of ocean acidification: the inability of marine calcifying organisms to maintain their shells/skeletons in a corrosive environment. Our results are based on sensitivity simulations conducted with a state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model integrated under various black carbon (soot) external forcings. Our findings suggest that regional nuclear conflict may have ramifications for global ocean acidification.