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Geophysical Research Letters

Volume 30, Issue 5

Causes of atmospheric temperature change 1960–2000: A combined attribution analysis

Gareth S. Jones

Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, UK

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Simon F. B. Tett

Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, UK

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Peter A. Stott

Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, UK

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First published: 11 March 2003
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016377
Cited by: 18

Abstract

[1] We investigate the causes of temperature change over the last four decades, both near the surface and in the free atmosphere, using a coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model, HadCM3, which requires no flux correction. We use an 'optimal detection' methodology to examine zonal mean temperatures near the surface and on nine diagnosed pressure levels throughout the atmosphere over the last four decades of the 20th Century. This produces a space‐time‐multivariable detection analysis which for the first time includes both solar and volcanic forcings in addition to anthropogenic forcings. Our results strengthen the case for an anthropogenic influence on climate. Unlike previous studies we attribute observed decadal‐mean temperature changes both to anthropogenic emissions, and changes in stratospheric volcanic aerosols. The temperature response to change in solar irradiance is also detected but with a lower confidence than the other forcings.

Number of times cited: 18

  • Thanh Le, Jesper Sjolte and Raimund Muscheler, The influence of external forcing on subdecadal variability of regional surface temperature in CMIP5 simulations of the last millennium, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 4, (1671-1682), (2016).
  • V. Aquila, W. H. Swartz, D. W. Waugh, P. R. Colarco, S. Pawson, L. M. Polvani and R. S. Stolarski, Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 13, (8067-8082), (2016).
  • D. M. Mitchell, P. W. Thorne, P. A. Stott and L. J. Gray, Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends, Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 11, (2801-2806), (2013).
  • F. C. Lott, P. A. Stott, D. M. Mitchell, N. Christidis, N. P. Gillett, L. Haimberger, J. Perlwitz and P. W. Thorne, Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 6, (2609-2619), (2013).
  • Patrick Willems, Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe, Climatic Change, 120, 4, (931)
    Crossref
  • D. M. Mitchell, P. A. Stott, L. J. Gray, M. R. Allen, F. C. Lott, N. Butchart, S. C. Hardiman and S. M. Osprey, The impact of stratospheric resolution on the detectability of climate change signals in the free atmosphere, Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5, (937)
    Crossref
  • Seung-Ki Min, Xuebin Zhang, Francis Zwiers, Hideo Shiogama, Yu-Shiang Tung and Michael Wehner, Multimodel Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature Changes, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1, 26, 19, (7430-7451), (2013).
    Crossref
  • Gareth S. Jones, Mike Lockwood and Peter A. Stott, What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near‐surface temperature changes?, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117, D5, (2012).
  • Mike Lockwood, Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates, Surveys in Geophysics, 33, 3-4, (503)
    Crossref
  • G. S. Jones and P. A. Stott, Sensitivity of the attribution of near surface temperature warming to the choice of observational dataset, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, 21, (2011).
  • Peter W. Thorne, John R. Lanzante, Thomas C. Peterson, Dian J. Seidel and Keith P. Shine, Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2, 1, (66-88), (2010).
  • Shaohong Wu, Du Zheng, Yunhe Yin, Erda Lin and Yinlong Xu, Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario, Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20, 5, (643)
    Crossref
  • Christoph Schleip, Annette Menzel and Volker Dose, Bayesian analysis of changes in Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature, International Journal of Climatology, 29, 5, (629-641), (2008).
  • Binhui Liu, Mark Henderson and Ming Xu, Spatiotemporal change in China's frost days and frost‐free season, 1955–2000, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113, D12, (2008).
  • Gareth S. Jones, Peter A. Stott and Nikolaos Christidis, Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm Northern Hemisphere summers, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113, D2, (2008).
  • Natalie M. Mahowald, Anthropocene changes in desert area: Sensitivity to climate model predictions, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 18, (2007).
  • , , Borehole Climatology, (307)
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  • Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hegerl, F. Hugo Lambert, Nathan P. Gillett, Susan Solomon, Peter A. Stott and Toru Nozawa, Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends, Nature, 448, 7152, (461)
    Crossref