Volume 38, Issue 2 e2023GB007865
Research Article

The Greenhouse Gas Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems in East Asia Since 2000

Xuhui Wang

Corresponding Author

Xuhui Wang

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

Correspondence to:

X. Wang,

[email protected]

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Yuanyi Gao

Yuanyi Gao

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Sujong Jeong

Sujong Jeong

Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

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Akihiko Ito

Akihiko Ito

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

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Ana Bastos

Ana Bastos

Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany

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Benjamin Poulter

Benjamin Poulter

Institute on Ecosystems and the Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA

Biospheric Science Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

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Yilong Wang

Yilong Wang

Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Philippe Ciais

Philippe Ciais

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, France

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Hanqin Tian

Hanqin Tian

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

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Wenping Yuan

Wenping Yuan

School of Atmospheric Sciences, SUN YAT-SEN University, Guangzhou, China

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Naveen Chandra

Naveen Chandra

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan

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Frédéric Chevallier

Frédéric Chevallier

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, France

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Lei Fan

Lei Fan

School of Geographical Sciences, Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China

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Songbai Hong

Songbai Hong

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Ronny Lauerwald

Ronny Lauerwald

Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR ECOSYS, Thiverval-Grignon, France

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Wei Li

Wei Li

Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Zhengyang Lin

Zhengyang Lin

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Naiqing Pan

Naiqing Pan

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Chestnut Hill, PA, USA

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Prabir K. Patra

Prabir K. Patra

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan

Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), Kamigamo, Kyoto, Japan

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Shushi Peng

Shushi Peng

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Lishan Ran

Lishan Ran

Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

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Yuxing Sang

Yuxing Sang

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Stephen Sitch

Stephen Sitch

Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

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Maki Takashi

Maki Takashi

Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Earth System Modeling Research, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan

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Rona Louise Thompson

Rona Louise Thompson

Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning, Kjeller, Norway

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Chenzhi Wang

Chenzhi Wang

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Kai Wang

Kai Wang

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Tao Wang

Tao Wang

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

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Yi Xi

Yi Xi

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, France

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Liang Xu

Liang Xu

Pachama, Inc, San Francisco, CA, USA

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Yanzi Yan

Yanzi Yan

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Jeongmin Yun

Jeongmin Yun

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA

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Yao Zhang

Yao Zhang

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Yuzhong Zhang

Yuzhong Zhang

Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment and Resources of Zhejiang Province, School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China

Institute of Advanced Technology, Westlake Institute for Advanced Study, Hangzhou, China

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Zhen Zhang

Zhen Zhang

Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

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Bo Zheng

Bo Zheng

Shenzhen International Graduate School, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China

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Feng Zhou

Feng Zhou

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Shu Tao

Shu Tao

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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Josep G. Canadell

Josep G. Canadell

CSIRO Environment, Canberra, CAN, Australia

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Shilong Piao

Shilong Piao

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

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First published: 22 February 2024
Citations: 1

Abstract

East Asia (China, Japan, Koreas, and Mongolia) has been the world's economic engine over at least the past two decades, exhibiting a rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has expressed the recent ambition to achieve climate neutrality by mid-century. However, the GHG balance of its terrestrial ecosystems remains poorly constrained. Here, we present a synthesis of the three most important long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) budgets over East Asia during the decades of 2000s and 2010s, following a dual constraint approach. We estimate that terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia is close to neutrality of GHGs, with a magnitude of between −46.3 ± 505.9 Tg CO2eq yr−1 (the top-down approach) and −36.1 ± 207.1 Tg CO2eq yr−1 (the bottom-up approach) during 2000–2019. This net GHG sink includes a large land CO2 sink (−1229.3 ± 430.9 Tg CO2 yr−1 based on the top-down approach and −1353.8 ± 158.5 Tg CO2 yr−1 based on the bottom-up approach) being offset by biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions, predominantly coming from the agricultural sectors. Emerging data sources and modeling capacities have helped achieve agreement between the top-down and bottom-up approaches, but sizable uncertainties remain in several flux terms. For example, the reported CO2 flux from land use and land cover change varies from a net source of more than 300 Tg CO2 yr−1 to a net sink of ∼−700 Tg CO2 yr−1. Although terrestrial ecosystems over East Asia is close to GHG neutral currently, curbing agricultural GHG emissions and additional afforestation and forest managements have the potential to transform the terrestrial ecosystems into a net GHG sink, which would help in realizing East Asian countries' ambitions to achieve climate neutrality.

Key Points

  • A comprehensive greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4 and N2O) accounting including about 40 flux terms over East Asia is reported

  • Terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia are close to greenhouse gas neutral

  • Natural ecosystems is a net greenhouse gas sink, compensated by a net source from agricultural ecosystems

Plain Language Summary

East Asia (China, Japan, Koreas and Mongolia) is not only the hotspot of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG, including CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions, but also a region with large CO2 sink. However, the greenhouse gas balance of greenhouse gases over the region is poorly understood. In this study, we performed a synthesis for over 40 flux terms to provide the first-of-its-kind GHG budget assessment over the decades of 2000s and 2010s. We find terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia is close to neutrality of GHGs. The bottom-up approach summing up component fluxes estimated a net balance of −36.1 ± 207.1 Tg CO2eq yr−1, while the top-down approach based on atmospheric inversions estimated a net balance of −46.3 ± 505.9 Tg CO2eq yr−1. This results from compensation of the large CO2 sink by CH4 and N2O emissions, and from compensation of net GHG sink over natural ecosystems by net GHG source over agricultural ecosystems. Thus, curbing agricultural GHG emissions has the potential to realizing the ambitious goal of achieving climate neutrality over East Asia.

Data Availability Statement

The relevant data supporting the conclusions of this study, including the inversion fluxes for three GHGs, the GCP estimates for three GHGs, the regional land carbon fluxes of TRENDYv9, the soil N2O emissions estimated by NMIP models, the book-keeping model fluxes, the synthesis of inland water GHG emission estimates and the lateral carbon fluxes were archived and available from the data repository of RECCAP-2 at https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/geodb/projects/Home.php. All other datasets used in this study were listed in Table S1–S3 in Supporting Information S1 with detailed data descriptions and link for access. The analysis was conducted through MATLAB version R2022a (https://ww2.mathworks.cn/products/matlab.html). Maps and figures were created through ArcGIS Pro version 2.8.3 from Esri (https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgis-pro/overview) and CorelDraw Graphics Suite version 2021 from Corel Corporation (https://www.coreldraw.com/en/product/coreldraw/). Any other request should be directed to the corresponding author.