Neutral Tropical African CO₂ Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations

Abstract

Tropical lands play an important role in the global carbon cycle yet their contribution remains uncertain owing to sparse observations. Satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) have greatly increased spatial coverage over tropical regions, providing the potential for improved estimates of terrestrial fluxes. Despite this advancement, the spread among satellite-based and in-situ atmospheric CO₂ flux inversions over northern tropical Africa (NTA), spanning 0–24°N, remains large. Satellite-based estimates of an annual source of 0.8–1.45 PgC yr⁻¹ challenge our understanding of tropical and global carbon cycling. Here, we compare posterior mole fractions from the suite of inversions participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) Version 10 Model Intercomparison Project (v10 MIP) with independent in-situ airborne observations made over the tropical Atlantic Ocean by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during four seasons. We develop emergent constraints on tropical African CO₂ fluxes using flux-concentration relationships defined by the model suite. We find an annual flux of 0.14 ± 0.39 PgC yr⁻¹ (mean and standard deviation) for NTA, 2016–2018. The satellite-based flux bias suggests a potential positive concentration bias in OCO-2 B10 and earlier version retrievals over land in NTA during the dry season. Nevertheless, the OCO-2 observations provide improved flux estimates relative to the in situ observing network at other times of year, indicating stronger uptake in NTA during the wet season than the in-situ inversion estimates.

Key Points

• Emergent constraints derived from aircraft carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements and inversions estimate a near neutral northern tropical African CO2 budget

• Inversions using satellite observations overestimate annual emissions from northern tropical Africa (NTA) by approximately 1 PgC yr−1

• Satellite CO2 observations imply a strong sink during the wet season over NTA

Plain Language Summary

Satellite carbon dioxide (CO₂) observations over land imply a major revision to our understanding of the global carbon cycle linked to large emissions from northern tropical Africa (NTA) during the dry season, from October to May. We use aircraft observations made over the Atlantic Ocean in four seasons to evaluate flux models driven by a range of ground and satellite observations. Our results show that models using satellite observations over land overestimate annual emissions from NTA by approximately 1 PgC yr⁻¹, concentrated in the dry season. At other times of year, satellite CO₂ observations provide improved estimates of NTA exchange, with a stronger CO₂ uptake during the wet season.