Journal Highlights

Verification of space weather forecasts

Editor’s Highlight—


This paper shows thorough validation of our current probabilistic capabilities concerning space weather forecasting. The authors present initial forecast verification from two types of probabilistic forecasts of space weather activity: predictions of geomagnetic Kp and predictions of X-ray solar flares. They leverage several methods for calculating skill and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to quantitatively evaluate the forecasts. This is a big step forward towards bringing space weather forecasting nearer to terrestrial weather forecasting.