A Cost-Loss Approach to Solar Wind Forecasting
This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an “ensemble” forecast, and application of a “cost-loss” analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather. More...
Research Spotlight—A Better Way to Predict Space Storms
A new model of solar winds could reduce false alarms.
The solar winds that buffet Earth’s magnetic field, made up of charged particles that hurtle away from the Sun at hundreds of kilometers per hour, can cause radio blackouts, disrupt power grids, and endanger satellites. Scientists have spent decades developing techniques to predict the powerful magnetic storms, but current methods are still prone to costly errors. Now, a cheaper, quicker technique for modeling how solar winds will impact Earth’s magnetic field could help humans better prepare for space weather....more
—Emily Underwood, Freelance Writer
- Article Category
- Research Articles
Probabilistic Solar Wind Forecasting Using Large Ensembles of Near‐Sun Conditions With a Simple One‐Dimensional “Upwind” Scheme
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Eos.org: Earth & Space Science News
Space Weather Quarterly
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