Journal Highlights

Large dataset enables more precise prediction of tropical cyclone behavior

Editor’s Highlight—


Projecting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the future is very uncertain as there are many controlling factors over different ocean basins that lead to the development of large storms. This study analyzes documents the analysis of a very large ensemble of simulations – in fact, a dataset of unprecedented size – to make more robust predictions about the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones. The findings suggest that overall future tropical cyclone activity will be reduced globally, which is consistent with the recent IPCC report. However, intense (Category 4-5) tropical cyclones will only be enhanced in certain geographic regions and globally these largest storms will be much reduced, a conclusion different from other studies. This study also illustrates the potential range of uncertainty in estimating future impacts from tropical cyclones which is very useful. 


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Featured Special Collection

A Census of Atmospheric Variability from Seconds to Decades 

The atmosphere varies naturally on all length scales from millimeters to thousands of kilometers, and on all time scales from seconds to decades and longer.  This special collection of Geophysical Research Letters synthesizes and summarizes that variability through a phenomenological census.  The collection brings together some of the most influential and definitive papers to have been published in this journal in recent years.  The topics covered include turbulence on time scales of seconds and minutes, gravity waves on time scales of hours, weather systems on time scales of days, atmospheric blocking on time scales of weeks, the Madden–Julian Oscillation on time scales of months, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on time scales of years, and the North Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, Pacific Decadal, and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillations on time scales of decades.  The collection is accompanied by a Commentary article, which provides an authoritative, concise, and accessible point of reference for the most important modes of atmospheric variability.

A Census of Atmospheric Variability from Seconds to Decades