Paris 1.5°C target may be smashed by 2026
Global temperatures could break through the 1.5°C barrier negotiated at the Paris conference as early as 2026 if a slow-moving, natural climate driver known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has, as suspected, moved into a positive phase.
New research published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, shows that a positive IPO would likely produce a sharp acceleration in global warming over the next decade.
Since 1999, the IPO has been in a negative phase but consecutive record-breaking warm years in 2014, 2015 and 2016 have led climate researchers to suggest this may have changed. In the past, these positive phases have coincided with accelerated global warming.
“Even if the IPO remains in a negative phase, our research shows we will still likely see global temperatures break through the 1.5°C guardrail by 2031,”…more
- Article Category
- Research Letters
Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
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Eos.org: Earth & Space Science News
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