Paris 1.5°C target may be smashed by 2026
Global temperatures could break through the 1.5°C barrier negotiated at the Paris conference as early as 2026 if a slow-moving, natural climate driver known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has, as suspected, moved into a positive phase.
New research published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, shows that a positive IPO would likely produce a sharp acceleration in global warming over the next decade.
Since 1999, the IPO has been in a negative phase but consecutive record-breaking warm years in 2014, 2015 and 2016 have led climate researchers to suggest this may have changed. In the past, these positive phases have coincided with accelerated global warming.
“Even if the IPO remains in a negative phase, our research shows we will still likely see global temperatures break through the 1.5°C guardrail by 2031,”…more
- Article Category
- Research Letters
Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
- First Published:
- | Vol:
- | DOI:
Eos.org: Earth & Space Science News
Download the App
New Android App Available!
iOS App for iPad or iPhone
AGU Career Center
Featured Special Collection
Early results from Juno's mission at Jupiter including approach to Jupiter and the first perijove pass (PJ1). Juno's scientific objectives include the study of Jupiter's interior, atmosphere and polar magnetosphere with the goal of understanding Jupiter's origin, formation and evolution. This collection of papers provides early results from Juno's measurements of the gravity and magnetic fields, deep atmospheric microwave sounding, infrared, visible and ultraviolet images/spectra and an array of fields and particles instruments as well as context for the early results with respect to current theory and models of Jupiter's formation and evolution. Topics include both Juno - Jupiter related theoretical models and data analysis as well as collaborative observations made from Earth based assets.