Journal Highlights

Forecasting Arctic soil temperatures under climate change

Editor’s Highlight—

 

This study expands our understanding of air temperature-soil temperature-nutrient mobilization in an Arctic environment under climate change. The authors ran forecast experiments for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) experimental site using the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model. They included soil temperature and snow dynamics in the model to make robust soil temperature forecasts. The data assimilation approach presented in this study is often used in hydrology but has been rarely applied in cryosphere sciences. A major strength of this paper is to present a method that can evaluate uncertainty in predictions and understand the main controls on the soil thermal dynamics.